opinion

Uncertainty and complexity

There’s one thing that seems to be inevitable about the world we find ourselves moving increasingly towards: we need to learn to deal more effectively with uncertainty, together with relentless change, instability, and unpredictability, all in a context of complexity. Uncertainty is a major feature of complexity – and neither expertise, efficiency nor control alone will allow us to adequately engage with complexity. If an attempt at orderly, predictable efficiency is all that we bring to a situation that is in fact complex, we will find our adaptability, our flexibility, our resilience, and our capacity to manage the situation compromised. The way our government in the UK approached its handling of the COVID pandemic (‘It will all be over by Christmas’, for example) is an example of a lack of recognition of complexity, and what it demanded.

Our society seeks and prizes predictability and control, under the illusion that both are possible in all situations. Dave Snowden shows in his Cynefin framework for decision-making how, in a complex situation, patterns are discernible only in retrospect, and don’t repeat themselves regularly.

Addressing uncertainty: doing (experimenting) and being (human relationships)

It seems to me that dealing with uncertainty requires both a readiness to experiment at small scale, learn from the experiment (experiments that have failed are especially valuable) and experiment again and seek human connection, relationship and the ability to work effectively with interdependency and interconnection (my post on interconnection and interdependence may be relevant here). In other words, the capacity to engage in relationship and to bring what used to be called ‘soft skills’ (are they still called soft skills, I wonder, as they’ve been shown repeatedly to be a highly significant factor in hard results?). In uncertainty a feeling of psychological safety with other human beings is crucial in allowing us to experiment and take risks in the way we need to if we are to find new, creative ways of engaging with any unfamiliar and uncertain environment.

Collaboration

Key here is cross-functional collaboration and coalition-building, which enables learning in psychologically safe environments from unfamiliar fields and disciplines, thus broadening perspectives, capitalising on creativity, and building the versatility, flexibility and adaptability that are so important for uncertain contexts. One of the successes of the UK COVID experience demonstrates this well: the embrace of specialists from outside conventional fields to develop vaccines at speed and build the ventilators that saved lives.

Margaret Heffernan’s work

Entrepreneur, CEO, writer and keynote speaker Margaret Heffernan spoke on TED some years ago about ‘The human skills we need in an unpredictable world’ and more recently (May 2025) at the RSA in London on ‘How to Thrive in Uncertain Times’ on her book ‘Embracing Uncertainty: How writers, musicians & artists thrive in an unpredictable world’.

Trust, empathy, psychological safety and creativity

She calls attention to the invaluable role of trust and empathy (and I would add psychological safety) as human relationships develop, and to the value of the artist’s creativity – for example, discovering the plot of the novel you’re writing as you go along, continuing to keep going when you don’t know where you’re going, and the ability to pay attention without rules or a clear agenda, but rather adopt a spirit of exploration, inventiveness, flexibility and imagination. She calls attention to sensitive courage and sensitive humility – the humility to know you don’t know, and the courage to start anyway. Brian Resnick’s work on intellectual humility – the importance of knowing you might be wrong – also comes to mind.

Neurodiversity

As Heffernan’s fellow guest at the RSA event, Josette-Bushell Mingo, Principal at The Royal Central School of Speech and Drama, reminded the audience, we may have something valuable to learn from people who are neuro-diverse – and who live constantly in uncertainty. Strategies that they may have developed to address the challenges of this (for example, breaking down tasks into smaller, manageable steps, limiting exposure to information, and seeking support from compassionate others) may be useful sources of such learning.

The place of AI

Mingo flagged too that looking for help from technologies such as AI won’t help much, because AI builds on existing data, and doesn’t engage with what hasn’t yet been created. We need a more expansive, creative, inventive approach.

Imperfection

It occurs to me that imperfection is relevant here too. The McKinsey paper Why strategists should embrace imperfection makes an important point in this connection, concerning the value of accepting the ambiguity of not having perfect knowledge before making strategic moves: ‘Companies and nonprofits can make a series of small moves that help them build knowledge of the uncertain world they’re operating in…. We have to accept that the way we progress will be more like rugby: a series of forward, backward, and sideways moves, and accepting that a number of the moves we make will fail’. Implicit in that approach, it seems to me, is the value of being ready to question assumptions and the foundations of arguments.

In conclusion

Besides the tactical value of looking for weak signals – subtle clues or indicators that can reveal emerging trends, potential problems, or opportunities in the future – rather than gathering as much information as possible, which may simply lead to the reinforcement of prior judgments, useful guidelines for negotiating uncertainty might be to start by focusing on relationships and on small-scale experiments, and give up on the search for control and predictability.

^{Photo by Paolo Nicolello on Unsplash}

Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a major feature of complexity – and neither expertise, efficiency nor control alone will allow us to adequately engage with complexity. If an attempt at orderly, predictable efficiency is all that we bring to a situation that is in fact complex, we will find our adaptability, our flexibility, our resilience, and our capacity to manage the situation compromised. Dealing with uncertainty requires both a readiness to experiment at small scale, learn from the experiment and experiment again and seek human connection, relationship and the ability to work effectively with interdependency and interconnection. Key here is cross-functional collaboration and coalition-building. Margaret Heffernan calls attention to the invaluable role of trust and empathy (and I would add psychological safety) as human relationships develop, and to the value of the artist’s creativity. We may have something valuable to learn from people who are neuro-diverse. Useful guidelines for negotiating uncertainty might be to start by focusing on relationships and on small-scale experiments, and give up on the search for control and predictability.

Interconnection and interdependence

The exhibition ‘Soil: The World at Our Feet’ displayed the hidden depths of soil. Soil is the great interconnector’. The fungus network explores the labyrinth of the soil, transporting nutrients to plant roots…. and trading them with the plant in exchange for carbon, which includes sugars…. the plant support system. Coming together, the networks achieve things that none could achieve alone’. Isn’t this a reflection of how human society and organisations function? Not only humans, but all living beings, are interconnected through this kind of vast and deeply complex mycelium network. In parallel, human relationships and the complexity of the systems they form, are essential for the functioning of society. In the plant world, ‘being is always being with….’ Being with. Through profound presence and deep listening, that’s what my coaching offers, and that’s what enables growth, development and change in my clients.

Edges with depth

On a group residential weekend of experiential learning the contextual theme was ‘edge’ – learning on the edge, right on the edge between sea and land. A cacao ceremony offered me a step towards a profound connection with both the simplicity and the magic of what nature can offer us. And equally, and simultaneously, I was challenged by the deeply unfamiliar nature of the ceremony, which called on a capacity to suspend judgment made by reference only to my habitual criteria for assessing the world around me. A walk onto the nearby beach and rockpools to forage for edible seaweed was a journey into the unknown, of a completely different kind. We take from the sea, so what are we going to give back to the sea? As I’ve continued to broaden my reflections on where else reciprocity might be appropriate in our troubled world, it seems to me that we could do a lot more to offer care and caring back to it.

Passionate detachment

She was an entrepreneur, passionate about, but exhausted by, the demands of building her business. She felt like the business was running her rather than vice versa. She knew that something had to change if she – let alone the business – was going to sustain. Being able to be passionately detached is about 'creating an equilibrium where we are passionately engaged in what we love, but are reasonably detached from the day-to-day outcomes of our actions ....we passionately take charge of living our dharma, our life’s purpose, while letting go of being invested in the external measures of our progress' i.e. the outcomes we achieve. While you’re subject to the magnetic attraction of your passion it’s hard to see anything other than the detail of the object of your passion. Courageously, this entrepreneur began to experiment on a very small scale with self-compassion, with doing things she enjoyed. She saw the business flourishing in a way that it hadn’t done before. Meanwhile, she had a new sense of balance. Almost without noticing, she had detached herself from being possessed by the business she loved. As the business was beginning to flourish, so was she: she and the business were both getting a life.

Spaciousness

A fascinating new research report on spaciousness has just been published: ‘Permission to Pause: Rediscovering ‘spaciousness’ at work’, by Professor Megan Reitz and John Higgins. The researchers highlight two different modes of behaving: ‘doing’ (paying attention to action, achievement, productivity and the like – the territory of busyness) and ‘spacious’ (attention is focused on enquiry and exploration, interdependence and relationship). Their research separates busyness from flourishing. Busyness seems to be part of the entrenched culture in many systems and organisations, militating against the kind of thoughtfulness that helps ensure that action is the right action. There’s much here that brings to mind for me both mindfulness (paying attention on purpose, in the present moment and without judgment) and psychological safety. Spaciousness it isn’t only a way of being for teams and groups. It’s also a way of being that we as individuals can offer to ourselves.

Memory and memories

I find myself curious about not only the somatic nature of memory and memories, but also about the memories that exist in organisations because of, for example, individuals’ relationships with previous leaders and colleagues, and how important it is to take account of them: these memories carry significant power in terms of having shaped some of the attitudes, motivations and expectations that people bring to work. This is the stuff of systems, revealed often in a facilitated engagement with systemic constellations. It can be useful and revealing for a current leader to reflect on the imprint of previous leaders in their role, and to respect it rather than being tempted to dismiss it (and be the ‘new broom’), simply because that leader was in the past. The memory of past leaders may be very alive today because of their embodied impact on the team and the organisation. The recently-arrived leader does well not to trample on memories nor to impose organisational Alzheimer’s.

Help - giving and receiving

I'm remembering moments when clients have articulated a sense of shame in not being able to sort all their challenges out themselves. However, these challenges – and many others – are a normal part of everyone’s lives. Somehow we’ve learnt to equate ‘alone’ or ‘separate’ or even ‘isolated’ with ‘strong’ and ‘resilient’. In reality, precisely the opposite is true. ‘Alone’ and ‘coping alone’ are brittle ways to be. As human beings we are interdependent. When one element is vulnerable, that vulnerability will impact all the others, no matter how seemingly distant. Equally, when one element is helped, resourced and strengthened by another, that too will be felt in some way by other elements. Collective intelligence is always superior to the intelligence of one individual. We need to recognise and value vulnerability and a need for help.

World Kindness Day

Every November 13th, the world celebrates World Kindness Day - a global reminder of how small acts of kindness can create a ripple effect that strengthens our connections to one another. Kindness begets kindness - and it also gets more of value achieved. It’s close to compassion, and to the exercise of compassionate leadership. It certainly beats the effect of not noticing or caring how things are for The Other, of inconsiderate or unwarranted criticism, of self-absorption to the exclusion of others, or of neglecting others and their interests. Kindness creates precious connections and scope for collaboration, which is critical for innovation, change and versatility: the employee who feels seen and heard, taken account of and considered, will feel led with strength.

Working dynamics

Three of my coaching clients have decided to leave their jobs and their employers. In all three cases their reasons related to the way they were treated at work. One felt diminished, shut down and rendered voiceless by their line manager. The other two felt unvalued and unrecognised by their line managers. It has looked to each of them that those leading and managing them have been predominantly concerned with being seen as ‘right’, with protecting their own internal empires and with self-protection. My clients have felt crushed, sidelined, unseen and voiceless. If one looks at the seniors with compassion, the contexts in which they are working and the variety of pressures on them, and expectations of them, together with their possible exposure in front of a wider audience, come into view. How might it have been possible for my clients to seek ways in which to establish better connection, to be more curious and to stimulate more curiosity, and to bring more compassion and more self-compassion?